May the Fourth Be With You...Always.
It's all about moving rocks, yo!
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We are in the midst of a titanic battle, and although neither of the two armies realizes yet, we already know who the winner is. No, I’m not talking about the global fight against the coronavirus. I mean the war that’s been brewing for years between the legacy film industry and the upstart streaming services. On one side, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (e.g. the Oscars), the major studios, large network TV conglomerates and largest movie theater chains—the legacy film industry in other words—have been in a defensive crouch since Netflix first started streaming in 2010. On the other side of the conflict, Netflix, Amazon and Hulu—the streamers—have been waging an insurrection for the better part of a decade. The lines of battle and the armies haven’t really changed for most of the conflict. Cord-cutting has undermined cable and Hollywood has responded by making bigger and bigger tentpole blockbusters and reaped fees from the streamers in exchange for their catalogues of films and TV shows.
The final battle of this war began last week when a couple of major players effectively switched sides. Traditionally, the rule has been that to be eligible for an Oscar a film must screen at a Los Angeles cinema for at least a week, a rule which has effectively blocked streaming only films from competing for the top industry awards. This meant that Netflix—for instance—was forced to shell out big bucks to make a film like Roma competitive for the awards, and the reality is that once a streaming committed to at least one screen in LA, they tended to go all in on a national campaign and theatrical release. This had the effect of reinforcing the Academy’s role as gatekeeper and powerbroker and shored up theater chains and the major studios from having to broadly compete with the upstart streamers.
On April 29, faced with the ongoing closure of most movie theaters around the country—and particularly in key markets New York City and Los Angeles—the Academy decided to relax the rule. Right now, they’re saying that for 2020 only streaming films will be eligible for awards, but this may be a genie that’s impossible to put back in the bottle.
Score: Streamers, 1 — Legacy 0
This was clearly a blow to the legacy film industry, but by itself the Academy loosening the criteria for Oscar contention doesn’t spell the end of Hollywood as we know it. However, a second blow hit at almost the same time. On April 28, one day prior to the Academy’s announcement, Comcast, which owns Universal, announced that Trolls World Tour, which had originally been slated for a theatrical release before COVID-19 hit, had racked-up over $100 million in digital rental revenue. Universal had opted to make the film immediately available to rent for $19.99, and American families were happy to pay the price. Indeed, the movie earned more in three weeks from streaming rentals than it did during the entire five month theatrical run of the first Trolls movie.
In light of this success, NBCUniversal president Jeff Shell somewhat coyly remarked to the Wall Street Journal that once theaters reopen, Universal plans to release movies in both formats. This is a prospect that should scare theater chains. If Universal can make more money streaming a blockbuster like Trolls World Tour, they no longer need the theaters to survive. And with all of the major media conglomerates proffering their own streaming services (Peacock for NBCUniversal, HBO Max for Warner Brothers, CBS All Access for Viacom, and Disney+ and Hulu for Disney), the largest studios have actually switched alignment away from the legacy industry to the streamers.
Score: Streamers, 2 — Legacy 0
At this point, the battle field stands with the streamers in an advantageous position, the Academy straddling the line, and the major studios quickly realigning themselves with the upstart services. The major theater chains such as Regal and AMC stand alone on the side of legacy media. Within hours of Shell’s comment to the Journal, the head of AMC, Adam Aron, had responded that the theater chain would not screen any Universal films if the company decided to release any films direct to streaming at the same time as a theatrical release. A day later, Cineworld Group, which owns Regal, weighed-in with a similar statement that “we make it clear again that we will not be showing movies that fail to respect the windows,” between theatrical and streaming release dates.
The theater chains actually still have a fair amount of leverage against the studios. While Universal did decide to move Trolls World Tour to streaming, foregoing a planned theatrical release, they opted to reschedule the release of the upcoming James Bond film No Time To Die. The calculus was clearly that a kids movie could clear a mega profit with rentals—for most families the choice between a $19.99 rental or spending as much as $16.50 per ticket at a Regal is easy—but that a major franchise film targeted at an adult audience would still bring in more cheddar at the multiplex.
Score: Streamers 2 — Legacy 1
For now, it’s a standoff between the streamers and the theater chains, but the long-term outcome seems clear. The theater chains will have to strike deals with the studios and streaming services, and at some point the Academy may permanently allow streaming films to qualify for awards. As the theater chains grow weaker and consumers increasingly feel the financial weight of the multiplying streaming services, those companies will likely grow more cutthroat in trying to outcompete each other.
The real winners will be consumers, who will have easier and cheaper access to films generally and may benefit from lower ticket prices at theaters, and independent and premium cinemas, such as the Alamo Drafthouse and Nitehawk cinemas, which will draw in movie lovers with carefully curated slates of films, food, drinks, assigned seating, and assiduously enforced rules for moviegoing decorum. The final battle is just commencing, but the outcome of the war seems increasingly clear.
Today’s Film: Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back (1980)
In honor of May the 4th—Star Wars Day in other words—I am reviewing the second and best film in the franchise. Last week I wrote about the original Star Wars and the difficulties with understanding it as theater-goers would have originally in 1977.
Many believe Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back, the sequel to 1977’s Star Wars: A New Hope, is to this day the best film in the entire franchise. While the Rebel Alliance ended the previous film on a high note after destroying the Death Star, they find themselves under siege on an inhospitable world at the opening of The Empire Strikes Back. A massive fleet, led by none other than Darth Vader himself, seeks to exterminate the rebellion and Luke Skywalker in particular. The rebels are low on material and soldiers after the last ditch battle against the Death Star, and it seems like that may have been a Pyrrhic victory.
Our friends are back, but Luke struggles to understand the Force and runs up against the limits of his incomplete training as Vader seeks him with growing cunning and vigor. Han and Leia are at loggerheads over how to save the rebellion, and that situation is made worse by unrequited feelings and mechanical problems on the Millennium Falcon. And to top things off, a brigade of bounty hunters are dispatched to reel them in. The film is a series of narrow escapes, setbacks and complications, and it concludes with the heroes imperiled, betrayed and on the run.
The Empire Strikes Back rises above the other Star Wars films for a couple of reasons. The screenplay was written by two masters, Leigh Brackett and Lawrence Kasdan, and directed by Irvin Kershner, and not by George Lucas, who was a great storyteller but a weaker writer and director. It also benefitted from a much larger budget than the first film, allowing Lucas and the team to fully execute its science fiction vision. Yet it also benefitted from being made primarily with practical special effects—models, animation, puppets, etc.—rather than the quickly outdated CGI that marred the later entries of the 1990s and 2000s.
More than anything, The Empire Strikes Back is a high stakes movie about war, love and purpose, and it forces the main characters through a series of challenges, each more difficult than the last. The returning cast—Harrison Ford, Carrie Fisher and Mark Hamill in particular—have an incredible familiarity with each other and the characters, and they make you believe the danger is real, and hope always seems like it is about to flicker out.
Star Wars the Empire Strikes Back is available to stream on Disney+ or to rent on various platforms.
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A tip-o-the-hat to reader James Sullivan for pointing me towards the news that Key West has cancelled its annual Hemingway Lookalike contest.
Watching baseball is out right now, but there was a fascinating piece at MLB.com recently about the unusual origins of arguably the strangest rule in baseball. Here’s why you can still run if you swing on a third strike but the catcher drops the ball.
Benjamin Reeves is an award-winning screenwriter, journalist and media consultant based in Brooklyn, New York. Follow him on Twitter @bpreeves or write to him at breeves.writer@gmail.com.